Mike Gibbons gave up on evidence, now spreads election lies

At first, Senate candidate Mike Gibbons said he would stick to the evidence of what happened in the 2020 presidential election. He expressed concerns and questionable rhetoric about it, but wouldn’t say the election was invalid or stolen. That all changed in March 2022, when Gibbons dropped the restraint and began eagerly spreading falsehoods about widespread election fraud instead.

At first, Gibbons kept some distance from the Big Lie

When Gibbons announced his Senate run in April 2021, it was an open question where he stood on the 2020 election results and Donald Trump’s schemes to commit a self-coup. After all, Gibbons was a prominent fundraiser for Trump’s election campaigns. It was a pleasant surprise to hear him acknowledge that he had not seen evidence of widespread fraud.

As of January 2022, Gibbons was asked if he would have voted to reject Joe Biden’s win, and he replied, “I haven’t seen the evidence I would need to not certify, but I believe it could be out there.”

He told Spectrum News, “I don’t think our country can be tied to one individual.” He also told Jewish Insider, “I am a Trump supporter, but I’m not into the cult of personality. … It’s not about Donald Trump, it’s about America.” It was a signal that maybe he wouldn’t be beholden to Trump’s Big Lie.

He did question the election

Gibbons had plenty of gripes about the 2020 election and was certainly not agreeing that it was a free and fair victory for Biden. He spoke of “discrepancies”, “irregularities”, “questionable practices”, “massive numbers of anomalies” and called for investigations, audits, and stricter election rules, echoing much of the language of Trump’s anti-democracy propaganda. However, there was at least a hint of Gibbons being grounded in evidence, of a slightly more reasonable candidate compared to Josh Mandel or Jane Timken demanding immediate “decertification” of Biden’s victory, or Bernie Moreno advertising, “President Trump says the election was stolen, and he’s right.”

Gibbons’ website says there is “evidence of fraud” that “should be investigated fully”, but does not outright declare enough fraud that would have changed the results. Big elections are bound to have at least one person attempting voter fraud, such as these 2 registered Republicans in Arizona, and of course each instance should be investigated. Therefore, Gibbons is technically right there, although perhaps misleading within the context of Trump’s conspiracy to undermine our democracy.

His website ominously refers to “what happened in 2020,” but makes no specific allegation of wrongdoing. It also calls the election “a disaster”, a kind of unspecified bluster that inexcusably emboldens the Big Lie, but doesn’t actually proclaim the election was invalid.

He said, “I don’t know what happened in the election,” offering at least a more humble position than Mandel’s, but nevertheless a soft pedaled undermining of President Biden’s legitimacy.

But then, Gibbons started blatantly lying

In March 2022, Gibbons contrasted himself from Mandel, promising not to make broad unsupported claims, saying, “Haven’t seen the evidence that the election was stolen but in my heart I know it was.” On one hand he was reaffirming his commitment to evidence, but also opening the door for his “heart” to ignore the evidence and embrace conspiracy theory instead.

About a week later, he boldly asserted that there was massive election fraud measured in the millions. In two separate live debates, he alleged, “Five million more people voted than were registered to vote, and that’s according to the US Census Bureau.” It was just pure nonsense.

Over 158 million people voted in the 2020 presidential election, and the Census Bureau estimates over 168 million registered voters in the 2020 election. That’s about 10 million more registrations than votes, easily debunking Gibbons’ claim!

Two years earlier, the Census Bureau estimated 153 million registered voters for the 2018 midterm. Did Gibbons make the mistake of assuming registrations would be the same in a presidential year, or did he just blindly repeat the error that someone else made?

Furthermore, the Census registration numbers are just estimates based on self-reported surveys, and not official registration counts. The US Election Assistance Commission puts the number of 2020 registered voters at 209 million, about 51 million more than cast votes. That completely contradicts Gibbons’ claim.

Gibbons went on to make other false allegations about Wisconsin’s election which are fact checked here.

Making vague references to unquantified fraud was questionable political rhetoric, but spreading specific falsehoods about widespread fraud is too far and a clear undermining of our democracy.

Doubling down on the conspiracy theory

Now Gibbons claims “more evidence comes out every day that shows massive fraud”, but points to an old paper published 16 months ago which was already debunked 5 months ago!

The paper by John R. Lott Jr. entitled Simple tests for the extent of vote fraud was published in December 2020. Professors from Stanford and University of Chicago found that Lott had significant problems with his methodology, in their paper No evidence for systematic voter fraud published November 2021.

They found that Lott’s conclusions depend on counties being listed in a specific order, and if they’re put in a different order then the analysis gives contradictory results. When they corrected Lott’s formula, the result showed there were none of the anomalies that Lott claimed. They went on to show Lott’s turnout analysis was also flawed.

Recently Lott added a third “test” to his paper, and touts it as new research, even though the paper still contains the first two flawed “tests”. The paper is still 2/3 debunked, which gives us little reason to trust his addition is any better.

Gibbons’ claim of a steady stream of new evidence conjures imaginations of detectives in 2022 hot on the trail of cheating voters or corrupt election officials, but the reality is more like bad formulas in an Excel spreadsheet from more than year ago.

Would Gibbons take the time to review the professors’ rebuttal to Lott’s paper, or is he content to spread the lie about “massive fraud”? Based on the verifiable lies he now boldly repeats to live crowds, he likely doesn’t care.

May 3rd primary election

Gibbons still hasn’t outright declared the 2020 election was stolen, nor demanded that states change their results, so maybe he’s still more restrained than Mandel, Timken or Moreno. Nevertheless, his willingness to blatantly lie about widespread voter fraud puts him in their same league, and leaves Matt Dolan in a lane of his own since he directly rejects Trump’s Big Lie.

Gibbons loses primary

On 5/3/22, Gibbons lost the Republican Senate primary to JD Vance, falling to a distant 4th place, even behind Matt Dolan, despite months of TV ads.

Going after more moderate state Republicans

In 2023, Gibbons is now trying to oust the 22 Republicans who backed Republican Jason Stephens for House Speaker, via the super PAC Ohio Strong Action. Stephens has shown a willingness to be more bipartisan and somewhat more moderate than the alternative Derek Merrin.

“Fidelity to conservative values” seems to mean obedience to party, avoiding working across the aisle, and a willingness to undermine democracy itself to gain more power.

“Guarding Ohio’s Constitution” should mean correcting our unconstitutionally gerrymandered district maps, and there’s some optimism that Stephens would be open to that. But OSA goes the other direction, referring to Merrin team’s efforts to make it harder for citizens to have a check on elected officials, by raising the threshold for amending the Ohio Constitution to 60% instead of the current 50%+1 requirement. They pretend it’s about protecting our Constitution from out-of-state special interests, but Rep. Stewart later admitted it really was about blocking non-partisan redistricting and reproductive rights, even if a majority of Ohioans want those things.

It’s laughable to suggest that all 22 who voted for Republican Stephens aren’t conservative. Many of them have pushed far-right pro-life and pro-Trump positions.

Further reading

Fact checks for Mike Gibbons – PolitiFact.com